Keyword: Population Aging
1 result found.
Original Article
Epidemiology and Health Data Insights, 1(5), 2025, ehdi017, https://doi.org/10.63946/ehdi/17314
ABSTRACT:
Goals. To assess demographic trends in Uzbekistan (2010–2024) and evaluate the need for geriatric care with a moderate increase in the proportion of persons 65 +, comparing them with health resources.
Materials and Methods. Retrospective analysis of official data from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2010-2024): population, share of 65 +, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, health care resources (beds, doctors, outpatient network). The forecast for 2025 was performed by linear extrapolation (total population: y = 679.65x + 27.974, R² = 0.99; age 65+: y = 74.05x + 1.140, R² = 0.98; 95% CI for 65+ = 2.18–2.28 million). The standard for the need for geriatricians was estimated according to the Russian benchmark of 1 geriatrician/20,000 elderly.
Results. The population increased from 28.00 million (2010) to 37.80 million (2024); forecast for 2025 - 38.17 million. The share of 65 + increased from 3.9% (2013) to 5.6% (2024); forecast for 2025 - 5.8% (~ 2.23 million). Able-bodied - 56.2% (2024). In 2023, the provision was 47.4 beds and 28.7 doctors per 10,000 population; outpatient organizations increased to 8011. Circulatory system diseases - 57.6% of deaths (2024). According to the standard, about 112 geriatricians are required with an estimated current availability of 0-100 specialists.
Conclusions. Against the background of the low proportion of 65 + and expanding general health resources, the creation of a separate branched geriatric service is not a priority. Rationally - integration of geriatric consultants into large centers (Tashkent, Samarkand, Fergana, etc.) for the management of multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes, while strengthening the prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases in the predominant young population. Monitoring of age-specific mortality/morbidity rates and validated indicators of the functional status of the elderly is needed.
Materials and Methods. Retrospective analysis of official data from the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2010-2024): population, share of 65 +, birth rate, mortality, life expectancy, health care resources (beds, doctors, outpatient network). The forecast for 2025 was performed by linear extrapolation (total population: y = 679.65x + 27.974, R² = 0.99; age 65+: y = 74.05x + 1.140, R² = 0.98; 95% CI for 65+ = 2.18–2.28 million). The standard for the need for geriatricians was estimated according to the Russian benchmark of 1 geriatrician/20,000 elderly.
Results. The population increased from 28.00 million (2010) to 37.80 million (2024); forecast for 2025 - 38.17 million. The share of 65 + increased from 3.9% (2013) to 5.6% (2024); forecast for 2025 - 5.8% (~ 2.23 million). Able-bodied - 56.2% (2024). In 2023, the provision was 47.4 beds and 28.7 doctors per 10,000 population; outpatient organizations increased to 8011. Circulatory system diseases - 57.6% of deaths (2024). According to the standard, about 112 geriatricians are required with an estimated current availability of 0-100 specialists.
Conclusions. Against the background of the low proportion of 65 + and expanding general health resources, the creation of a separate branched geriatric service is not a priority. Rationally - integration of geriatric consultants into large centers (Tashkent, Samarkand, Fergana, etc.) for the management of multimorbidity and geriatric syndromes, while strengthening the prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases in the predominant young population. Monitoring of age-specific mortality/morbidity rates and validated indicators of the functional status of the elderly is needed.
